Ukraine’s Grim Two-Year Mark
As Ukraine marks two years in a devastating conflict with Russia, the outlook for peace appears grim amidst the desolation of the war-torn landscape, vividly depicted in satellite images.
Despite initial setbacks experienced by Russian President Vladimir Putin in the winter of 2022, recent developments indicate a resurgence of Moscow’s military ambitions. The once-promising signs of negotiation seem remote, with Putin’s recent remarks suggesting that any talks would occur on Moscow’s terms, leaving little room for compromise.
The Capture of Avdiivka
The relentless bombardment was a singular terrorizing event in a broader Russian offensive that recently culminated in the capture of the war-torn industrial center of Avdiivka by Vladimir Putin’s forces, located 30 kilometers (20 miles) to the east. Russia asserted complete control over Avdiivka following Ukraine’s withdrawal, acknowledging the presence of Ukrainian troops still entrenched in a sprawling Soviet-era coke plant, marking the aftermath of one of the conflict’s most intense battles. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov recently stated, “Measures are being taken to completely clear the town of militants and to block Ukrainian units that have left the town and are entrenched at the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant.”
In the vicinity of Avdiivka, specifically near the village of Progres, Ukrainian troops are actively constructing new defensive lines, serving as the latest obstacle for Russian forces as they seek to breach Ukrainian defenses.
Outlook for 2024
Analysts and diplomats anticipate another year of conflict in 2024, with Ukraine’s determination to reclaim lost territories at odds with Putin’s insistence on Kyiv’s unconditional surrender. Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Kremlin-linked Council on Foreign and Defense Policy think tank, dismisses the possibility of negotiations in the near future, asserting that there is nothing for Moscow and Kyiv to negotiate about.
Challenges to Ukrainian Resilience
While Ukraine successfully repelled a much larger adversary in the first year of the invasion, cracks are beginning to emerge in Kyiv’s resolve. The exhaustion of Ukrainian troops, delays in military aid from the US, and political tensions within Kyiv raise concerns about the sustainability of their resistance.
Bakhmut’s Devastation
Satellite images vividly depict the extensive devastation in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, a strategic target for Moscow’s expansionist agenda. The images released by Maxar reveal significant damage to schools, university buildings, apartment buildings, and a radio tower in the city.
Setbacks for the Russian Navy
The Kremlin in December last year officially recognized that a Ukrainian assault had inflicted damage on a warship docked in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosiya, a development labeled as a significant setback for the Russian navy by Ukraine and its Western allies. Ukraine reported that its air force successfully obliterated the Novocherkassk landing ship.
In a recent interview with right-wing US talk show host Tucker Carlson, Putin’s terms seem non-negotiable for Kyiv, making any meaningful dialogue elusive. The Russian president’s strategic calculations are influenced by the erosion of Western support for Ukraine, the failure of US policy to deliver swift aid, and the rise of far-right sentiments in Europe.
Uncertainty Amidst Political Dynamics
The delay in US military aid due to political disputes and Europe’s struggles to provide sufficient weaponry contribute to Ukraine’s sense of uncertainty. On the other hand, Russia has weathered Western sanctions, mobilized its economy for war, and silenced internal opposition, exemplified by the sudden death of Alexei Navalny. As the US election looms, the outcome could further shape the trajectory of the conflict.
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